El Niño Is Approaching: What Your HOA Should Do Before the Storms Arrive

El Niño may begin thousands of miles away in the tropical Pacific, but its effects can reach communities across the United States.

For HOA boards and community managers in California and Texas, that makes the developing 2026-27 El Niño worth watching closely.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is currently strengthening. NOAA's August 2026 outlook gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, with a 69% chance that the October through December period could reach a strength comparable to the strongest events in the historical record.

That does not mean every community will experience severe weather or that every storm will be extreme. El Niño influences the odds of certain weather patterns. Still, when a potentially strong event is developing, it is a good time for communities to look at the parts of their property that could be most vulnerable to increased rainfall and winter storms.

For HOAs, that preparation starts before the first major storm arrives.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average. Those warmer waters can influence atmospheric circulation and shift the position of the jet stream, which can change weather patterns across North America.

NOAA explains that El Niño's strongest and most consistent U.S. influence generally occurs during the colder months. The effects vary by region, which is especially important when looking at California and Texas.

For community associations, the most important question is simple:

What could changing weather patterns mean for the property?

California: More Rain Can Mean More Maintenance

California communities are particularly important to watch during El Niño winters.

Historically, El Niño has been associated with increased precipitation across portions of California, with the relationship generally stronger in Southern California and later in the winter season.

NOAA's California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment is also currently tracking the developing 2026-27 El Niño, noting that the event is expected to strengthen into the winter and that impacts along the West Coast could extend from fall through winter and potentially into spring.

For HOAs, additional rainfall can put pressure on systems that may not receive much attention during the dry season.

1. Inspect roofs and the building envelope

Roof maintenance should be near the top of the list.

Boards and managers should look for:

• Damaged or deteriorated roofing materials
• Cracked or failing sealants
• Damaged flashing
• Roof penetrations that may allow water intrusion
• Blocked roof drains
• Clogged scuppers and gutters
• Areas where previous leaks have occurred

The building envelope deserves attention, too. Inspect exterior walls, windows, doors, vents, skylights and other penetrations for cracked sealants, gaps or other conditions that could allow water inside.

For high-rise communities, boards should also confirm that facade components, parapet coping and other exterior elements are properly secured ahead of periods of heavy rain and wind.

A small maintenance issue can become a much larger problem when a major storm sends sustained rainfall across the community.

2. Clear drainage systems

Rainwater needs somewhere to go.

Before the wet season, communities should inspect and clear:

• Storm drains
• Catch basins
• Gutters
• Downspouts
• Drainage channels
• Culverts
• Parking lot drains
• Other low-lying drainage areas

Landscaping debris, leaves and sediment can restrict water flow and contribute to flooding or standing water.

Communities should also identify areas where water has historically pooled and confirm that grading directs runoff away from buildings.

3. Inspect garages and parking areas

Below-grade garages and covered parking areas deserve particular attention before significant rainfall.

Inspect garage ceilings and walls for existing water intrusion, and check trench drains, sump pumps and other drainage systems to make sure they are functioning properly.

Identify entrances, exits and low points where water tends to collect. If a community has historically experienced flooding at garage entrances, having sandbags and other protective materials available before a storm can make a significant difference.

4. Inspect slopes, retaining walls and landscaping

Heavy rainfall can expose weaknesses in areas that appeared stable during dry conditions.

Boards should look for signs of erosion, drainage problems, soil movement and cracking around retaining walls and slopes.

Trees deserve attention as well. Dead or weakened branches can become a hazard during periods of heavy rain and wind, particularly when they are located near buildings, vehicles, walkways or other common-area improvements.

5. Don't overlook common areas and amenities

Clubhouses, mailrooms, pool facilities and other amenity buildings need the same attention as residential structures.

Check common-area roofs for leaks, confirm doors and windows seal properly, and make sure areas such as pool equipment rooms have adequate drainage.

Pool decks should also be checked for clogged drains or other conditions that could prevent water from moving away from the area.

6. Look at what happened last time

One of the best preparation tools is the community's own history.

Where did water collect during previous storms?

Which buildings experienced leaks?

Did a parking structure flood?

Did a particular drainage area overflow?

Were emergency vendors difficult to reach?

Past maintenance records and resident reports can help boards identify recurring problems and prioritize preventative work.

Documenting conditions before the rainy season can also give boards a useful record of existing issues. Photos, inspection notes and maintenance records can help track recurring problems, communicate with vendors and prioritize repairs.

Texas: Preparing for a Wetter Winter

Texas has its own reason to pay attention to the developing El Niño.

NOAA has historically associated El Niño with wetter-than-average conditions across portions of the southern United States, including the Gulf Coast. The relationship is particularly notable during the winter months.

For Texas HOAs, that makes drainage, roofing and building maintenance important areas to review before winter weather arrives.

1. Inspect stormwater infrastructure

Communities should make sure drainage systems are ready to handle significant rainfall.

That includes:

• Storm drains and inlets
• Detention and retention areas
• Drainage channels
• Culverts
• Gutters and downspouts
• Parking lots
• Garages
• Low-lying areas around buildings

A drainage system that works well under normal conditions can become overwhelmed when rainfall is unusually heavy.

For communities with below-grade areas, confirm that sump pumps, alarms and trench drains are functioning properly before significant rainfall arrives.

2. Review roofs and building exteriors

Texas communities should also look for potential points of water intrusion.

Inspect roofing materials, flashing, sealants, windows, doors and other vulnerable areas before severe weather arrives.

If one building has experienced repeated leaks, it may be worth determining whether the problem is isolated or indicative of a broader maintenance issue.

3. Check common areas and amenities

Clubhouses, mailrooms, pool facilities and other common-area buildings should also be inspected for potential water intrusion.

Check roofs, doors, windows and drainage around these spaces, particularly if the property has experienced leaks or pooling in the past.

4. Prepare outdoor areas for wind and rain

Heavy rain is only part of storm preparation.

High winds can turn unsecured outdoor furniture and equipment into hazards. Communities should identify secure storage for patio furniture, umbrellas, cushions and other loose items, and inspect structures such as gazebos, cabanas, pergolas and shade structures for loose or damaged components.

5. Prepare for changing conditions

El Niño does not create identical weather across the entire state.

Depending on the location and individual storm systems, communities can encounter heavy rainfall, strong winds, temperature swings and other winter weather concerns.

That makes an updated emergency plan particularly valuable.

Boards and managers should confirm that emergency contacts are current and that critical vendors know how to respond when urgent maintenance is needed.

Don't Forget Emergency Power and Supplies

Some storm-preparation items are easy to overlook until they are needed.

For communities with emergency generators or fire pumps, equipment should be serviced and tested ahead of the season. Fuel levels, batteries and other critical components should also be checked to confirm that emergency systems are ready when needed.

Communities should also confirm that basic emergency supplies are stocked and accessible, including:

• Sandbags
• Tarps
• Plastic sheeting
• Buckets or water-collection containers
• Flashlights
• Spare batteries

These supplies are much easier to organize before a storm is approaching, when vendors and retailers may be experiencing increased demand.

Resident Safety Matters, Too

Storm preparation is about more than protecting buildings.

Wet conditions can increase the risk of slips, falls and other injuries. Before significant rainfall, communities should inspect exterior lighting, handrails, stairways and walking paths.

Address uneven pavement, slippery surfaces and other hazards where possible, and clearly flag or communicate hazards that cannot be immediately corrected.

Residents should also know how to report leaks, flooding and other developing problems so that issues can be addressed quickly.